thunderquack
0x07fd560b73806637ba2474d651f66cdfc796ad26
- Realised P&L
- $459.36
- Volume
- $27.5k
- Markets traded
- 663
- Open portfolio
- $616.84
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded663
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.06at 0.347Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$63.24at 0.397Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
- +$49.36at 0.734Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
- +$38.27at 0.521Will Russia capture Udachne before August?
- +$38.08at 0.238Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 17:32 | Trump meets with Putin by November 30? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.00 |
| 10-01 17:31 | Trump meets with Putin by November 30? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:30 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $2.00 |
| 10-01 17:29 | EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31? | BUY | 0.0990960223 | $5.00 |
| 10-01 17:28 | EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31? | BUY | 0.2099999957 | $3.91 |
| 10-01 17:26 | EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.7699999992 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 17:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999633 | $1.94 |
| 10-01 17:24 | Will the Bank of Russia announce no change at the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 10-01 17:23 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |
| 10-01 09:32 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $2.00 |
| 10-01 09:32 | Will Russia capture Kindrativka by December 31? | BUY | 0.7099999702 | $5.00 |
| 10-01 09:31 | Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.00 |
| 10-01 09:31 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | BUY | 0.7499999625 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 09:29 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9529999485 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 09:27 | Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999858 | $5.00 |