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Traders

thunderquack

0x07fd560b73806637ba2474d651f66cdfc796ad26

Realised P&L
$485.06
Volume
$25.5k
Markets traded
560
Open portfolio
$701.71

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded560
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration4.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? · No0.8730.940$32.30+$2.30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.7200.850$29.41+$4.50
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · No0.9520.948$24.90$0.10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? · No0.8030.835$24.39+$0.93
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? · No0.7110.775$22.88+$1.88
Russia coup attempt in 2026? · No0.8700.925$22.33+$1.33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? · No0.8700.962$22.10+$2.10
Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? · No0.8280.780$21.53$1.32
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? · No0.7300.710$20.43$0.58
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by August 31? · No0.9480.956$20.17+$0.17
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? · No0.9610.951$19.79$0.21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9500.981$19.62+$0.62
Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? · No0.7900.770$19.49$0.51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · No0.4110.430$18.85+$0.85
Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30? · No0.7280.680$18.68$1.32

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-04 09:42Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?BUY0.7299998102$1.00
08-03 18:20Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.91$1.00
08-03 18:18US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.649999883$5.00
08-03 12:02Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?BUY0.8299999956$17.00
08-03 12:01Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?BUY0.4399999892$13.00
08-03 07:49Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30?BUY0.7699999667$12.25
08-03 07:46Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?SELL0.63$2.25
08-03 07:45Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?BUY0.7299999945$20.01
08-02 15:34Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?BUY0.7899999968$20.00
08-02 15:33Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?BUY0.961$20.00
08-02 15:33Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?BUY0.96$23.00
08-02 15:32Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?BUY0.6499999814$7.00
08-02 15:32Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?BUY0.9599999654$20.00
08-02 15:31Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30?BUY0.7281795426$20.00
08-02 15:31Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?BUY0.711427301$20.00