thunderquack
0x07fd560b73806637ba2474d651f66cdfc796ad26
- Realised P&L
- $485.06
- Volume
- $25.5k
- Markets traded
- 560
- Open portfolio
- $701.71
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded560
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.05at 0.347Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$63.24at 0.397Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
- +$49.36at 0.734Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
- +$38.27at 0.521Will Russia capture Udachne before August?
- +$38.08at 0.238Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 09:42 | Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 18:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 18:18 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999883 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 12:02 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? | BUY | 0.8299999956 | $17.00 |
| 08-03 12:01 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.4399999892 | $13.00 |
| 08-03 07:49 | Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.7699999667 | $12.25 |
| 08-03 07:46 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | SELL | 0.63 | $2.25 |
| 08-03 07:45 | Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31? | BUY | 0.7299999945 | $20.01 |
| 08-02 15:34 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 15:33 | Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 15:33 | Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $23.00 |
| 08-02 15:32 | Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30? | BUY | 0.6499999814 | $7.00 |
| 08-02 15:32 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999654 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 15:31 | Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.7281795426 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 15:31 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.711427301 | $20.00 |