0x04E35aaE15C0bf12684d7605AfD5bD0eD9c3eF1E-1767965593717
0x04e35aae15c0bf12684d7605afd5bd0ed9c3ef1e
- Realised P&L
- $-474.81
- Volume
- $15.0k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $86.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.162 | $58.30 | −$171.70 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.385 | $19.21 | −$1.75 |
| Trump out as President by September 30? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.005 | $4.29 | −$2.73 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.018 | $3.70 | −$7.70 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.003 | $0.75 | −$3.45 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.31at 0.759Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?
- +$68.95at 0.618S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24?
- +$49.00at 0.510Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
- +$38.45at 0.808Will there be exactly 0 major space weather events this week?
- +$35.00at 0.110US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 19:13 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 19:12 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.014 | $4.20 |
| 09-09 19:12 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.057 | $11.40 |
| 09-08 00:20 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.42 | $20.96 |
| 09-08 00:16 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.1621832183 | $16.22 |
| 09-08 00:00 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.009 | $7.02 |
| 09-07 23:46 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 23:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 23:44 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 06-13 10:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET | BUY | 0.424750083 | $25.00 |
| 06-13 09:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $25.00 |
| 06-08 05:15 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? | BUY | 0.8163460315 | $200.00 |
| 06-01 15:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.019 | $5.70 |
| 06-01 15:54 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? | BUY | 0.065 | $1.95 |
| 05-29 11:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.02 |