Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $45 in 2026?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-01-01
Resolves by: https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.43. down 0.07 over the period, from 0.50. Range 0.26 to 0.58. 102 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.44	100	100
0.45	90	190
0.50	20	210
0.72	25	235
0.74	80	315
0.97	13	328
0.98	25	353
0.99	50	403

Spread0.01Mid0.43

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.43	278	278
0.42	171	449
0.41	20	469
0.36	19	488
0.35	7	496
0.30	50	546
0.29	28	573
0.15	20	593
0.03	16	609
0.02	31	640
0.01	52	692

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.57	278	278
0.58	171	449
0.59	20	469
0.64	19	488
0.65	7	496
0.70	50	546
0.71	28	573
0.85	20	593
0.97	16	609
0.98	31	640
0.99	52	692

Spread0.01Mid0.56

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.56	100	100
0.55	90	190
0.50	20	210
0.28	25	235
0.26	80	315
0.03	13	328
0.02	25	353
0.01	50	403

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
2B9S	Yes	20
MichelPro	Yes	20
boempie	Yes	20
tradetosurvive1	Yes	7
anotherpootling	No	20
UpTheStairs	No	20
AJSV	No	19.63
0x2202…da92	No	7.37

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
19:27:35	BUY	No	0.51	40	$20.40
17:13:47	BUY	No	0.49	7	$3.43
17:13:47	SELL	Yes	0.51	40	$20.40
16:33:41	BUY	No	0.47	20	$9.40
16:33:35	BUY	Yes	0.49	20	$9.80
09:02:51	BUY	Yes	0.3499999797	7	$2.58
20:48:54	SELL	No	0.69	20	$13.80
20:42:54	SELL	No	0.7	13	$9.10
20:19:42	BUY	Yes	0.29	20	$5.80
16:28:36	BUY	Yes	0.26	33	$8.58