MichelPro
0x8ff1b21110b9d36fb653168354fd0164b631996c
- Realised P&L
- $-32.65
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $60.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.345 | $13.80 | −$1.80 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k? · No | 0.310 | 0.195 | $11.70 | −$6.90 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.530 | $10.60 | −$3.80 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k? · No | 0.390 | 0.470 | $9.40 | +$1.60 |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? · No | 0.579 | 0.425 | $6.69 | −$2.42 |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.173 | $3.46 | −$0.12 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.135 | $2.70 | −$2.30 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.498 | 0.442 | $1.56 | −$0.20 |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.575 | $1.03 | +$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.72at 0.747Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?
- +$1.40at 0.520Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?
- +$0.19at 0.600Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?
- +$-0.20at 0.535Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
- +$-0.20at 0.470Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 15:30 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | SELL | 0.53 | $21.20 |
| 09-25 15:30 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | SELL | 0.64 | $3.90 |
| 09-25 15:30 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | SELL | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 09-25 15:30 | Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3475 | $27.80 |
| 09-25 15:30 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | SELL | 0.8021421666 | $28.21 |
| 09-25 15:30 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | SELL | 0.173 | $25.95 |