PolyBot

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Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $15 in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.47. up 0.09 over the period, from 0.39. Range 0.25 to 0.60. 162 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.632020
0.722949
0.733079
0.7480159
0.795164
0.8120184
0.8730214
0.9510224
0.9673297
0.9825322
0.9928350

Spread0.31Mid0.47

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.32120120
0.3126145
0.3020165
0.096171
0.0821192
0.075197
0.0630227
0.0520247
0.0460307
0.0366373
0.02135508
0.01410918

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.68120120
0.6926145
0.7020165
0.916171
0.9221192
0.935197
0.9430227
0.9520247
0.9660307
0.9766373
0.98135508
0.99410918

Spread0.31Mid0.53

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.372020
0.282949
0.273079
0.2680159
0.215164
0.1920184
0.1330214
0.0510224
0.0473297
0.0225322
0.0128350

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
pootytherewardfarmerYes83.7
0x2091…b784Yes20
0xa2885059D3CEae40372E2B2F3c040334F62f4aeA-1770232055138Yes20
cloverpmq2Yes20
AJSVNo63.7
0xe3a0…5793No40
youtube-traderNo20
ilyassoNo20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
17:49:41BUYYes0.3720$7.40
17:35:14SELLYes0.3720$7.40
17:33:35BUYNo0.5220$10.40
17:33:35BUYNo0.5220$10.40
17:33:35BUYNo0.4980$39.20
15:35:48BUYNo0.4320$8.60
10:31:58BUYNo0.4620$9.20
10:29:57BUYYes0.4620$9.20
09:10:40BUYYes0.3720$7.40
08:10:07BUYYes0.320$6.00
03:38:18BUYYes0.320$6.00
22:42:00BUYNo0.5620$11.20
22:10:55BUYYes0.3420$6.80
20:11:03BUYYes0.3520$7.00
13:57:29BUYNo0.5420$10.80
13:22:51BUYYes0.3420$6.80
21:39:55BUYNo0.5720$11.40
20:40:48BUYYes0.3220$6.40
19:40:40BUYYes0.3340$13.20
15:45:01BUYNo0.6140$24.40
14:30:01BUYNo0.6284$51.89
13:30:01BUYNo0.5720$11.40
13:22:25BUYYes0.3220$6.40
21:18:48BUYYes0.340$12.00
14:10:23SELLNo0.5620$11.20