alidf
0xfde38c3e0cf69179ae100832434d14bf6e95c59b
- Realised P&L
- $222.51
- Volume
- $110.2k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $50.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.285 | $15.55 | +$12.79 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.101 | $10.85 | +$5.64 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.048 | $8.85 | +$4.29 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.035 | $5.75 | −$3.25 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.370 | $3.70 | +$2.70 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.030 | $2.43 | −$1.60 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.130 | $1.66 | +$0.89 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.037 | $1.49 | −$0.56 |
| Will a player representing Scotland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.45 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.86at 0.126Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$40.60at 0.029Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
- +$37.88at 0.003Will Trump tweet 10-19 times this week?
- +$31.34at 0.035No Opensea token launch by July?
- +$23.60at 0.210Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-23 12:53 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 03-23 12:25 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.10 |
| 03-23 05:26 | Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.80 |
| 03-10 05:26 | Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T? | SELL | 0.27 | $20.52 |
| 03-08 13:46 | Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.008727802 | $0.36 |
| 03-08 13:37 | Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? | SELL | 0.0357188 | $7.14 |
| 03-08 11:29 | Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? | BUY | 0.056 | $11.20 |
| 03-08 11:13 | Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | SELL | 0.213522293 | $10.73 |
| 03-08 05:59 | Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.75 |
| 03-08 05:28 | Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? | BUY | 0.04 | $2.39 |
| 02-26 11:15 | Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? | SELL | 0.02 | $3.40 |
| 02-26 11:08 | Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27? | BUY | 0.021 | $2.68 |
| 01-29 16:37 | Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on January 29? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 01-09 12:19 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.021189919 | $2.12 |
| 01-09 10:33 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |