0xfd747fd689085c9301a567d59e8fa5005bae0688
- Realised P&L
- $19.21
- Volume
- $413.05
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $77.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.944 | $45.63 | +$0.72 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.815 | $11.64 | +$1.64 |
| Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.950 | $5.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? · No | 0.995 | 1.000 | $4.99 | +$0.02 |
| Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.935 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.375 | $4.89 | +$0.07 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · No | 0.086 | 0.013 | $0.73 | −$4.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.61at 0.312Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$13.85at 0.520Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?
- +$3.41at 0.539Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
- +$0.52at 0.983Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?
- +$0.10at 0.993Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 20:10 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999524 | $4.82 |
| 07-21 14:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.97 |
| 07-10 23:20 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.0859999844 | $4.80 |
| 06-02 14:42 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9269999972 | $4.99 |
| 06-02 14:07 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-02 12:49 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-02 12:33 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-01 17:48 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-01 17:48 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-01 17:48 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-01 17:48 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9289999974 | $4.99 |
| 06-01 17:48 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9269999335 | $4.99 |
| 05-10 10:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 05-10 10:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.99 |
| 05-10 10:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.99 |