0xfd747fd689085c9301a567d59e8fa5005bae0688
- Realised P&L
- $3.84
- Volume
- $644.09
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $76.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.963 | $46.55 | +$1.64 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.965 | $13.78 | +$3.78 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.144 | 0.160 | $5.31 | +$0.50 |
| Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.967 | $5.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.925 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? · No | 0.830 | 0.859 | $1.08 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$50.81at 0.089Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
- +$18.97at 0.178Jahmai Jones: Home Runs O/U 0.5
- +$17.61at 0.312Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$15.71at 0.742Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?
- +$13.85at 0.520Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 19:24 | Jahmai Jones: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.17 | $3.92 |
| 09-17 18:41 | Jackson Merrill: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.22 | $1.43 |
| 09-17 14:10 | Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers | BUY | 0.468 | $4.80 |
| 09-16 22:36 | Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.17 | $1.03 |
| 09-16 21:25 | San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 | BUY | 0.47 | $4.89 |
| 09-16 20:55 | Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.16 | $3.56 |
| 09-16 20:41 | Eugenio Suárez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.16 | $1.41 |
| 09-15 21:45 | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $2.50 |
| 09-15 20:58 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $4.89 |
| 09-15 20:47 | New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 | BUY | 0.51 | $4.93 |
| 09-15 20:41 | Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 09-15 20:06 | San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals | BUY | 0.63 | $4.92 |
| 09-14 21:12 | New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 09-14 19:46 | San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $4.89 |
| 09-14 19:23 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets | BUY | 0.58 | $4.91 |