0xfD60167f4f8a372ab88bB1E52360fCFD331393cb-1768346337041
0xfd60167f4f8a372ab88bb1e52360fcfd331393cb
- Realised P&L
- $93.61
- Volume
- $8.8k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $555.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.125 | $335.42 | +$13.42 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.255 | $121.43 | +$21.43 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.230 | $95.02 | −$14.98 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.021 | $3.46 | −$4.51 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 4? · Up | 0.497 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.45 |
| Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$117.82at 0.370Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?
- +$49.73at 0.334US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$33.43at 0.350Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.032Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$4.05at 0.026Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 09:02 | Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.0483138057 | $7.97 |
| 09-14 15:59 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 15:58 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.266249679 | $110.00 |
| 09-14 15:48 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | SELL | 0.805522855 | $217.81 |
| 09-04 00:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 4? | BUY | 0.4975708502 | $61.45 |
| 09-03 23:59 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | BUY | 0.3698118918 | $100.00 |
| 09-03 23:24 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999997 | $322.00 |
| 02-26 16:48 | US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.1832623044 | $19.44 |
| 02-26 16:47 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $26.36 |
| 02-26 16:47 | Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | SELL | 0.18 | $12.61 |
| 02-26 16:47 | US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | SELL | 0.1395112794 | $44.22 |
| 02-26 16:47 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.0366523009 | $14.05 |
| 02-26 16:47 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.0495478782 | $15.61 |
| 02-20 17:52 | US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999939 | $35.00 |
| 01-31 23:05 | Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999941 | $20.00 |