0xfd109a01ad762fc32f0d29052cd09cf07971f6c2
0xfd109a01ad762fc32f0d29052cd09cf07971f6c2
- Realised P&L
- $10.61
- Volume
- $396.98
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $6.30
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? · No | 0.650 | 1.000 | $1.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $1.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.755 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.675 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.465 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.130 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
- +$4.20at 0.329Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 05:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 21:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 12:32 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 12:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 12:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 04:28 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 19:58 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 11:54 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 17:19 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 22:12 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 22:10 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:10 | Will Trump say "Mineral" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:10 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |