SquirrelTheMerchant
0xfb593511b24df1edff63c35de81c72d5733683f9
- Realised P&L
- $82.5k
- Volume
- $2.02M
- Markets traded
- 264
- Open portfolio
- $117.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded264
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.6kat 0.473Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$13.1kat 0.855Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
- +$6.9kat 0.333Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
- +$4.1kat 0.528Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$3.4kat 0.094Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 23:40 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | SELL | 0.8302095929 | $2.6k |
| 10-11 23:40 | Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | SELL | 0.9 | $2.7k |
| 10-11 17:10 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.8874075767 | $1.2k |
| 10-11 17:07 | Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.91 | $487.49 |
| 10-11 12:27 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | BUY | 0.41 | $82.00 |
| 10-11 12:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | SELL | 0.4 | $66.65 |
| 10-11 04:50 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.6731315649 | $3.2k |
| 10-11 04:25 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.34 | $61.20 |
| 10-11 04:05 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.42 | $20.16 |
| 10-10 18:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.69 | $722.23 |
| 10-10 18:41 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.69 | $853.02 |
| 10-10 16:08 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $1.6k |
| 10-10 04:21 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.518 | $3.2k |
| 10-09 22:34 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.33 | $829.98 |
| 10-09 18:42 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.89 | $558.28 |