onekey02
0xfaf98181c44636998a194aa7660bcae1b977f4c4
- Realised P&L
- $38.1k
- Volume
- $13.34M
- Markets traded
- 483
- Open portfolio
- $1.81M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded483
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.902 | 0.981 | $1.02M | +$81.1k |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.980 | $327.1k | +$19.9k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.895 | 0.964 | $257.8k | +$18.4k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.931 | 0.981 | $110.5k | +$5.5k |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.786 | 0.885 | $58.3k | +$6.5k |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.916 | 0.967 | $22.8k | +$1.2k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.992 | 0.992 | $17.4k | +$6.61 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.802 | 0.810 | $5.4k | +$50.03 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No | 0.510 | 0.971 | $97.04 | +$46.05 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$92.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$367.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.977Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
- +$4.4kat 0.956NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.1kat 0.993Will Trump visit China by May 15?
- +$3.9kat 0.870Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- +$3.7kat 0.957Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:44 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.44 |
| 11-01 16:44 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $15.0k |
| 11-01 13:11 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $495.34 |
| 11-01 04:59 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $39.18 |
| 11-01 04:14 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $9.9k |
| 11-01 04:13 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $218.24 |
| 11-01 04:12 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.3k |
| 10-31 11:32 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.996 | $696.20 |
| 10-31 11:31 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $210.50 |
| 10-31 03:40 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $35.73 |
| 10-31 02:26 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.2k |
| 10-30 17:57 | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.0k |
| 10-27 03:37 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.998 | $77.72 |
| 10-26 01:44 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.6k |
| 10-25 01:50 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.997 | $7.4k |