xasd-440
0xfa3b4d18b821ff075d9290fea82434b3ae106900
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $474.1k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.071 | 0.035 | $5.5k | −$5.8k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.002 | $286.13 | −$7.1k |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15? · No | 0.806 | 0.835 | $78.57 | +$2.67 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.880 | $16.72 | +$0.57 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31? · No | 0.390 | 0.555 | $5.55 | +$1.65 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7? · Yes | 0.698 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$497.84 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.36 |
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.6kat 0.887Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?
- +$1.1kat 0.841Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?
- +$294.83at 0.416Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?
- +$81.11at 0.904Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?
- +$25.43at 0.145Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 05:53 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 09-25 05:48 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15? | BUY | 0.81 | $50.18 |
| 09-25 05:47 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30? | BUY | 0.85 | $16.15 |
| 09-21 20:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0078325896 | $5.88 |
| 09-21 14:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $6.30 |
| 09-18 15:00 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.075 | $7.50 |
| 09-18 10:06 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.8999807692 | $46.80 |
| 09-18 10:06 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.899 | $53.94 |
| 09-18 10:05 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.8985 | $53.91 |
| 09-18 09:48 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $16.68 |
| 09-18 09:28 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.899 | $89.90 |
| 09-18 09:25 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.8877692308 | $115.41 |
| 09-18 06:44 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.885 | $14.16 |
| 09-18 06:34 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.8796605567 | $51.83 |
| 09-18 06:25 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30? | BUY | 0.8934995416 | $107.21 |