troublemake
0xf9240714781ae41cc8625654bb00b47b3e8b435b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $162.7k
- Markets traded
- 366
- Open portfolio
- $548.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded366
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$510.68at 0.047Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$498.40at 0.011Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
- +$328.95at 0.076Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?
- +$206.46at 0.013Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
- +$169.90at 0.039Will the US strike Iran next?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-24 09:33 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.77 | $0.86 |
| 02-23 18:46 | Will Trump say "Gulf of America" during the State of the Union address? | SELL | 0.46 | $2.22 |
| 02-23 11:58 | Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $2.20 |
| 02-22 14:07 | Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 02-22 05:08 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.887 | $145.58 |
| 02-22 00:56 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $0.52 |
| 02-22 00:29 | Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.49 | $1.71 |
| 02-20 15:49 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 02-20 15:02 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 02-20 09:00 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,750 (LOW) in February 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 02-19 15:20 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.46 | $13.80 |
| 02-19 09:19 | Will Tim Skelton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? | BUY | 0.36 | $2.56 |
| 02-19 03:13 | Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18? | SELL | 0.030809 | $0.62 |
| 02-19 02:25 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in February 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $27.12 |
| 02-18 16:56 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? | SELL | 0.059 | $1.18 |