0xf8FB8aB02faC704f091055763f68FDBd1fc8F213-1781427005643
0xf8fb8ab02fac704f091055763f68fdbd1fc8f213
- Realised P&L
- $525.42
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar14.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.977 | $771.31 | +$68.68 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.930 | $693.81 | +$37.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$212.87at 0.781Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$101.48at 0.822Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?
- +$82.96at 0.735Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$-249.47at 0.920Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 09:41 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $451.44 |
| 09-03 09:19 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $702.63 |
| 08-01 10:18 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 07-21 15:45 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 06-20 02:30 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.7891582064 | $15.00 |