0xf8ec144a09c65e1c361fa3b2409b8eac83d8253b
0xf8ec144a09c65e1c361fa3b2409b8eac83d8253b
- Realised P&L
- $-0.59
- Volume
- $269.46
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $9.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 · Yes | 0.220 | 0.410 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.885 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? · No | 0.751 | 0.909 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.755 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.231 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.335 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.785 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.319 | 0.187 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? · No | 0.260 | 0.110 | $0.42 | −$0.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$5.24at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$3.73at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$2.92at 0.512Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?
- +$2.49at 0.502Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 05:09 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:08 | Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.3189999225 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 13:07 | Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 03:25 | Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 19:06 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 10:31 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7509999564 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 02:14 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 18:09 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 10:09 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 01:13 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:43 | Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 07:15 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 08:38 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.00 |
| 09-19 00:38 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $3.00 |
| 09-17 13:08 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599998538 | $1.04 |