sapintegration
0xf8d921ad6e824ae5d386f58585b92bb4cd1608d2
- Realised P&L
- $4.0k
- Volume
- $275.4k
- Markets traded
- 260
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded260
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.259 | 0.849 | $671.16 | +$466.29 |
| T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka · Sri Lanka | 0.723 | 0.945 | $617.09 | +$144.97 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.975 | $338.15 | +$70.96 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.600 | 0.940 | $192.70 | +$69.70 |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 · Yes | 0.120 | 0.200 | $117.80 | +$47.12 |
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.275 | $97.35 | −$5.31 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.906 | 0.038 | $2.65 | −$60.60 |
| Anduril IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.045 | $0.63 | −$3.85 |
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.075 | $0.38 | −$1.52 |
| Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.044 | $0.12 | +$0.02 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.206San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Toreros
- +$570.17at 0.281Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018 end in a draw?
- +$504.74at 0.281US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 3.5
- +$498.13at 0.203Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?
- +$477.28at 0.240Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:38 | Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.06 | $15.90 |
| 04-27 08:37 | Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.06 | $23.28 |
| 04-27 08:35 | Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.06 | $12.30 |
| 04-27 08:25 | Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $88.88 |
| 04-27 07:58 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $537.39 |
| 04-21 10:36 | Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.8 | $331.20 |
| 04-21 10:34 | Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.79 | $14.22 |
| 04-21 03:28 | Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | SELL | 0.73 | $69.35 |
| 04-21 03:23 | Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? | SELL | 0.105 | $1.16 |
| 04-13 16:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $165.44 |
| 04-13 16:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $7.15 |
| 04-13 10:23 | Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $175.48 |
| 04-13 09:47 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $80.91 |
| 04-13 09:47 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $11.16 |
| 04-13 09:41 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $311.22 |