0xf8855dadc0e94d49e63ce1149850b60a74dc5274
- Realised P&L
- $-2.7k
- Volume
- $193.8k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $12.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$371.07at 0.561US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$300.00at 0.628Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$295.06at 0.917Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$266.66at 0.650US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$262.95at 0.745Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 16:09 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.9199999863 | $2.69 |
| 07-18 22:24 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9559999755 | $1.25 |
| 07-12 13:54 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9579999521 | $2.08 |
| 07-10 13:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $315.00 |
| 07-02 15:11 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999963 | $100.00 |
| 06-26 23:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9508783333 | $570.53 |
| 06-26 17:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9298692125 | $1.5k |
| 06-24 18:43 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9299998827 | $4.44 |
| 06-19 23:00 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4509999877 | $12.26 |
| 06-19 22:59 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8029999998 | $84.33 |
| 06-19 19:57 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.2 | $141.79 |
| 06-19 16:54 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.6988756191 | $59.36 |
| 06-19 12:22 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.5399999979 | $66.62 |
| 06-19 12:22 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.539999999 | $43.58 |
| 06-19 12:19 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $84.38 |