0xF7F7C9A10D6E567c6a3a01F001FE49A7ffe7AA34-1782564464465
0xf7f7c9a10d6e567c6a3a01f001fe49a7ffe7aa34
- Realised P&L
- $-12.97
- Volume
- $371.71
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $32.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.40at 0.582Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 30?
- +$1.63at 0.788Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 30?
- +$1.01at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 1?
- +$0.65at 0.642Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 30?
- +$0.65at 0.823Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 20:03 | Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.8959999838 | $1.77 |
| 10-06 00:22 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-01 House election by 6%-9%? | BUY | 0.9579999935 | $2.97 |
| 10-05 22:56 | Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat? | BUY | 0.1099999971 | $3.00 |
| 10-05 22:53 | Will October 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? | BUY | 0.8899999733 | $3.00 |
| 10-05 22:51 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.1799999964 | $3.00 |
| 10-03 08:03 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on October 5? | BUY | 0.8099999137 | $1.22 |
| 10-03 08:03 | Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999935 | $3.00 |
| 10-03 08:02 | Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999935 | $3.00 |
| 10-03 07:34 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 4? | BUY | 0.9699999935 | $3.00 |
| 10-03 07:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 3? | BUY | 0.9569999904 | $3.00 |
| 10-03 07:18 | Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 21:16 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 35%-40%? | BUY | 0.9399999937 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 21:15 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-04 House election by 65%-70%? | BUY | 0.98 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 21:11 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 11? | BUY | 0.9699999935 | $3.00 |
| 09-10 21:11 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on September 11? | BUY | 0.9699999935 | $3.00 |