bismuth
0xf6237ff93cc8f54a04379f46355bc7d1e47ebb2c
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $309.5k
- Markets traded
- 293
- Open portfolio
- $10.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded293
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$968.89at 0.830Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$900.00at 0.100Will the price of Ethereum be between $4600 and $4700 on August 22?
- +$752.14at 0.848Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$585.94at 0.524Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$437.36at 0.922Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 22:33 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.91 | $191.10 |
| 09-03 23:20 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 09-03 23:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $197.60 |
| 09-01 12:41 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.982 | $491.00 |
| 08-23 20:45 | Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? | BUY | 0.925 | $185.00 |
| 08-23 20:44 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.963 | $192.60 |
| 08-20 11:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $192.00 |
| 08-19 12:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $197.60 |
| 08-12 12:18 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $54.60 |
| 08-10 16:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $273.00 |
| 08-10 00:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $197.80 |
| 08-05 10:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.97 | $485.00 |
| 08-05 10:55 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.023 | $13.80 |
| 08-03 12:19 | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.968 | $290.40 |
| 08-03 12:17 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $34.48 |