Vanga3000
0xf5e838e17d89abf525b808e44209c29f4de4a1ce
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $130.6k
- Markets traded
- 281
- Open portfolio
- $4.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded281
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes | 0.819 | 0.815 | $1.1k | −$5.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.882 | 0.905 | $758.39 | +$19.15 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.716 | 0.720 | $680.71 | +$3.60 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No | 0.914 | 0.945 | $638.01 | +$20.88 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.945 | $378.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.960 | $376.16 | +$12.67 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.940 | $288.27 | +$15.27 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.967 | $130.55 | +$7.70 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? · No | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$625.20at 0.856Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?
- +$356.23at 0.834Will France win on 2026-07-04?
- +$230.82at 0.950Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$224.37at 0.886Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?
- +$215.59at 0.736Will France win on 2026-06-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:54 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $380.00 |
| 11-01 19:06 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 11-01 19:06 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 11-01 17:56 | Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC? | BUY | 0.975 | $146.25 |
| 10-31 22:10 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699915 | $154.00 |
| 10-31 22:09 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $9.12 |
| 10-31 21:46 | Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Fulham FC? | BUY | 0.985 | $98.50 |
| 10-31 21:45 | Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Fulham FC? | BUY | 0.979 | $29.37 |
| 10-31 21:38 | Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Fulham FC? | BUY | 0.946 | $94.60 |
| 10-30 17:14 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499635 | $149.99 |
| 10-30 17:02 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $22.20 |
| 10-30 16:46 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $8.14 |
| 10-28 00:28 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $39.20 |
| 10-25 01:59 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.8 | $88.00 |
| 10-25 01:56 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.8 | $104.00 |