0xF31a21285C47CEF6ddedd3404f805106D9221838-1783205488183
0xf31a21285c47cef6ddedd3404f805106d9221838
- Realised P&L
- $6.84
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $55.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? · No | 0.800 | 0.915 | $17.16 | +$2.16 |
| Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.745 | $12.32 | +$3.72 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.832 | 0.831 | $4.99 | −$0.01 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? · No | 0.720 | 0.995 | $4.84 | +$1.34 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.795 | $4.52 | −$0.48 |
| Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? · No | 0.940 | 0.955 | $3.05 | +$0.05 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.865 | $2.88 | −$0.05 |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.285 | $2.85 | −$2.15 |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.075 | $1.65 | −$1.43 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? · No | 0.940 | 0.999 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.06at 0.184Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$8.09at 0.389Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?
- +$4.80at 0.392Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?
- +$2.01at 0.505Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
- +$1.73at 0.637Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 03:02 | US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $3.33 |
| 09-14 02:36 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.879999976 | $2.93 |
| 09-14 02:29 | US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | BUY | 0.149999997 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 02:16 | Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30? | BUY | 0.939999812 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 18:24 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? | BUY | 0.7199999589 | $3.50 |
| 09-09 18:19 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8319999148 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 18:19 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.00 |
| 09-09 16:25 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.5199999942 | $3.60 |
| 09-09 16:24 | GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 16:23 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10? | BUY | 0.9909999993 | $11.00 |
| 09-09 16:23 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 16:22 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 16:06 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799998733 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 16:06 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | SELL | 0.1226675349 | $10.36 |
| 09-09 16:05 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.1420645125 | $12.00 |