Grocerystore.
0xf1a4be25118030418d1b389c88c1525041a7527c
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $681.9k
- Markets traded
- 796
- Open portfolio
- $776.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded796
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$919.50at 0.161Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$829.72at 0.936US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
- +$658.13at 0.296Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
- +$644.32at 0.050Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 20?
- +$371.99at 0.198Will the government shutdown end November 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 14:13 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 14:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $25.83 |
| 08-02 14:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.57 | $34.44 |
| 08-01 14:35 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $49.75 |
| 07-30 10:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.19 |
| 07-29 13:06 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.47 | $4.70 |
| 07-28 15:20 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.37 | $50.69 |
| 07-27 15:00 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.54 | $27.00 |
| 07-27 11:03 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.41 | $12.30 |
| 07-24 18:47 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $19.69 |
| 07-24 18:13 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $30.40 |
| 07-24 17:44 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31? | SELL | 0.036 | $1.33 |
| 07-24 15:46 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.35 |
| 07-24 05:36 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.91 |
| 07-24 05:32 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $9.46 |