0xf15ce80e309b1e83c4c00c30e2e9ef2d857478cc
0xf15ce80e309b1e83c4c00c30e2e9ef2d857478cc
- Realised P&L
- $33.20
- Volume
- $65.5k
- Markets traded
- 186
- Open portfolio
- $259.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded186
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? · Yes | 0.954 | 0.940 | $98.04 | −$1.46 |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.927 | 0.920 | $59.27 | −$0.43 |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? · No | 0.820 | 0.815 | $39.54 | −$0.24 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.988 | $33.31 | +$1.26 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.795 | $19.78 | −$0.12 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.115 | $9.53 | −$0.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.61at 0.774US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$71.67at 0.188Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$45.95at 0.990Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
- +$33.13at 0.724US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$30.16at 0.568Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 07:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.90 |
| 10-15 07:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.90 |
| 10-15 02:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.90 |
| 10-15 02:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.9599999846 | $19.90 |
| 10-15 01:31 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $19.90 |
| 10-15 01:25 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.9599999846 | $19.90 |
| 10-14 20:24 | Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999972 | $19.90 |
| 10-14 20:23 | Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999972 | $19.90 |
| 10-14 17:49 | Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999908 | $19.90 |
| 10-14 16:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.33 | $183.33 |
| 10-14 09:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.989 | $0.09 |
| 10-14 08:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.987 | $6.53 |
| 10-14 07:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | SELL | 0.986 | $1.43 |
| 10-10 20:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.9509999988 | $19.90 |
| 10-10 19:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.95 | $19.90 |