PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

EndInv

0xf149a494e3309e76a0543cbb019cb41357c5df77

Realised P&L
$-27.42
Volume
$6.2k
Markets traded
392
Open portfolio
$18.51

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded392
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government? · Yes0.3900.275$5.50−$2.30
Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government? · Yes0.4000.260$5.20−$2.80
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? · Yes0.2400.225$4.50−$0.30
Will Shas be in the next Israeli government? · No0.5000.625$1.99+$0.40
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? · Yes0.5330.617$1.32+$0.18
Boyacá Chicó FC vs. AD Cali: O/U 1.5 · Over0.6500.000$0.00−$1.00
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina · Linda Noskova0.3770.000$0.00−$1.00
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez · Pedro Martinez0.2150.000$0.00−$1.00
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies0.5270.000$0.00−$1.00
Busan: Yunchaokete Bu vs Marat Sharipov · Marat Sharipov0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 · BNK FEARX0.5570.000$0.00−$1.00
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 · Under0.5270.000$0.00−$1.00
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins0.2350.000$0.00−$1.00
Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) · Shanghai Haigang FC0.1050.000$0.00−$1.00
Madrid Open, Qualification: Viktoriya Tomova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova · Viktoriya Tomova0.4770.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 16:14Tom Holland as Spider-Man?BUY0.58$10.44
07-03 10:26Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to AdvanceBUY0.2$1.00
06-17 20:39Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.16$0.57
06-17 18:02US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?BUY0.003$1.00
06-17 16:25US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?SELL0.997$1.00
06-17 15:30US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?BUY0.99799901$1.00
06-17 12:21Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.161$1.04
06-16 11:16Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.1539998814$1.00
06-15 18:32Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.839$1.10
06-15 18:12Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.7589998497$1.00
06-15 18:12Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.27$1.59
06-06 09:04Iran leadership change by June 30?BUY0.9609996723$1.00
06-06 09:04Iran closes its airspace by June 15?SELL0.105$0.27
06-06 09:04US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?SELL0.04$0.33
06-04 08:33US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?BUY0.1199998992$1.00