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Traders

Umaroth

0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d

Realised P&L
$12.3k
Volume
$12.24M
Markets traded
3,548
Open portfolio
$7.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,548
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No0.8400.835$1.7k$10.00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No0.6460.805$1.6k+$323.71
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.6200.625$718.80+$5.75
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.3900.425$637.50+$52.50
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.7600.725$580.00$28.00
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2960.255$514.47$82.47
Trump renames AI by September 30? · No0.7200.695$347.50$12.50
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? · No0.5900.710$284.00+$48.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.1320.130$257.40$4.80
Will Netanyahu say "Trump" 3+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? · Yes0.6800.555$166.50$37.50
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? · Yes0.3350.125$135.48$228.10
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · No0.1900.085$74.17$91.62
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · Yes0.4630.140$64.90$149.74
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.5900.036$18.49$284.47
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? · No0.6300.880$5.25+$1.49

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 13:25Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?BUY0.3354545455$369.00
09-24 12:43Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?SELL0.73$280.23
09-24 11:36Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?BUY0.75$300.00
09-22 13:58Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?BUY0.7252947778$65.28
09-22 13:01Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?BUY0.7720330667$115.80
09-22 12:56Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?BUY0.6$24.00
09-22 12:54Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?SELL0.0876392174$201.57
09-22 12:51US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.67$268.00
09-20 12:16China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?SELL0.06$14.80
09-16 13:38Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?SELL0.2492499038$498.50
09-14 21:13Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?SELL0.45$180.00
09-11 08:25Will Trump say "Iran" during remarks at the Pentagon?BUY0.77880625$311.52
09-10 17:28LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch?SELL0.076486767$5.90
09-10 17:03LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch?SELL0.09$16.30
09-10 13:57LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch?BUY0.78$312.00
Trader Umaroth · PolyBot Pro