Umaroth
0xefde9ff487fae209ab6e3157a8acb4276f9c783d
- Realised P&L
- $12.3k
- Volume
- $12.24M
- Markets traded
- 3,548
- Open portfolio
- $7.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,548
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.0kat 0.166Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.5kat 0.102Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
- +$3.2kat 0.303Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
- +$2.3kat 0.864US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.506Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 13:25 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.3354545455 | $369.00 |
| 09-24 12:43 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | SELL | 0.73 | $280.23 |
| 09-24 11:36 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 09-22 13:58 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7252947778 | $65.28 |
| 09-22 13:01 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7720330667 | $115.80 |
| 09-22 12:56 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.6 | $24.00 |
| 09-22 12:54 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0876392174 | $201.57 |
| 09-22 12:51 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $268.00 |
| 09-20 12:16 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $14.80 |
| 09-16 13:38 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | SELL | 0.2492499038 | $498.50 |
| 09-14 21:13 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.45 | $180.00 |
| 09-11 08:25 | Will Trump say "Iran" during remarks at the Pentagon? | BUY | 0.77880625 | $311.52 |
| 09-10 17:28 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.076486767 | $5.90 |
| 09-10 17:03 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.09 | $16.30 |
| 09-10 13:57 | LAPTOP FDV above $750M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.78 | $312.00 |