Chelseaone
0xef9b5d5e51eb4987240ed77422352d10604ed5ed
- Realised P&L
- $18.1k
- Volume
- $1.82M
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $44.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.805 | $24.1k | +$1.4k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.945 | $19.9k | −$105.26 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.890Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
- +$4.1kat 0.788Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$4.0kat 0.898US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.896Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
- +$3.5kat 0.989 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 18:21 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $20.0k |
| 10-29 21:32 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $22.8k |
| 10-26 22:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9390249205 | $40.3k |
| 10-16 11:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.9487058784 | $35.0k |
| 10-06 02:06 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $5.1k |
| 10-06 02:05 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | SELL | 0.4666783548 | $1.5k |
| 10-02 21:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $30.0k |
| 10-02 12:11 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.6155401628 | $2.0k |
| 09-22 14:02 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $997.50 |
| 09-18 01:25 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8877017867 | $24.8k |
| 09-14 21:31 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $352.00 |
| 09-14 21:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $7.9k |
| 09-14 16:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.84 | $13.0k |
| 09-12 15:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2043890548 | $21.7k |
| 09-12 15:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.2 | $417.72 |