wagmiser
0xef6278f3e13d4a516fbb14b0d7ad2649ce990179
- Realised P&L
- $-7.4k
- Volume
- $671.5k
- Markets traded
- 240
- Open portfolio
- $10.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded240
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$287.79at 0.363Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$285.80at 0.075Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$284.00at 0.290Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$271.96at 0.320Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$222.99at 0.786Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 18:11 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15? | SELL | 0.07 | $63.00 |
| 08-08 18:11 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14? | SELL | 0.06 | $42.00 |
| 08-08 18:11 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? | SELL | 0.04 | $39.31 |
| 08-08 15:48 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 08-07 16:57 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999995 | $200.00 |
| 08-07 04:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.47 | $23.50 |
| 08-06 21:39 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.43 | $243.70 |
| 08-06 16:24 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? | BUY | 0.4027377522 | $34.94 |
| 08-06 04:40 | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $36.99 |
| 08-06 00:00 | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999997 | $100.00 |
| 08-05 23:59 | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999959 | $100.00 |
| 08-05 17:59 | Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.895 | $35.80 |
| 08-05 17:58 | Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 08-05 17:53 | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $8.00 |
| 08-05 17:41 | Grok 4.6 released by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $4.90 |