wagmiser
0xef6278f3e13d4a516fbb14b0d7ad2649ce990179
- Realised P&L
- $-8.0k
- Volume
- $684.6k
- Markets traded
- 246
- Open portfolio
- $10.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded246
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$287.79at 0.363Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$284.00at 0.290Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$271.96at 0.320Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$269.24at 0.075Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$222.99at 0.785Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 19:25 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $773.22 |
| 09-22 19:19 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999969 | $200.00 |
| 09-22 19:19 | Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $429.97 |
| 09-10 18:37 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.39 | $37.07 |
| 09-10 18:37 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.4287838618 | $870.26 |
| 09-09 02:02 | Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6099999999 | $1.6k |
| 08-21 23:10 | Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $133.50 |
| 08-21 23:09 | Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 2.75T in 2026? | BUY | 0.7050203203 | $29.49 |
| 08-21 23:07 | Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026? | SELL | 0.822 | $61.65 |
| 08-21 23:06 | Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026? | SELL | 0.9271858836 | $283.22 |
| 08-21 23:06 | Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026? | SELL | 0.9381254734 | $213.01 |
| 08-19 15:36 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $1.3k |
| 08-14 00:34 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $451.67 |
| 08-12 05:34 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.8589999998 | $200.00 |
| 08-10 17:11 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | SELL | 0.0122160043 | $6.11 |