PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

wagmiser

0xef6278f3e13d4a516fbb14b0d7ad2649ce990179

Realised P&L
$-8.0k
Volume
$684.6k
Markets traded
246
Open portfolio
$10.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded246
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.8720.970$4.5k+$451.03
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.6010.665$3.4k+$329.02
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.4250.425$1.0k−$0.28
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.930$773.22+$0.00
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · No0.8900.805$339.89−$36.11
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.8400.945$268.22+$29.80
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026? · No0.8300.700$154.59−$28.71
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026? · No0.9110.805$130.14−$17.13
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026? · No0.9400.948$115.46+$0.97
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? · No0.8780.000$0.00−$475.70
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? · No0.0890.000$0.00−$147.37
Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner? · No0.4800.000$0.00−$144.00
Will Trump say "Steel" during Michigan remarks? · Yes0.7300.000$0.00−$103.85
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00−$65.14
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? · Yes0.7630.000$0.00−$231.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-22 19:25Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.93$773.22
09-22 19:19Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY0.8999999969$200.00
09-22 19:19Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?SELL0.998$429.97
09-10 18:37Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?BUY0.39$37.07
09-10 18:37Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?BUY0.4287838618$870.26
09-09 02:02Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.6099999999$1.6k
08-21 23:10Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026?SELL0.89$133.50
08-21 23:09Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 2.75T in 2026?BUY0.7050203203$29.49
08-21 23:07Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026?SELL0.822$61.65
08-21 23:06Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026?SELL0.9271858836$283.22
08-21 23:06Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026?SELL0.9381254734$213.01
08-19 15:36Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.48$1.3k
08-14 00:34Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.52$451.67
08-12 05:34Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.8589999998$200.00
08-10 17:11Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?SELL0.0122160043$6.11