no.84huayu
0xebc24fc839b122f04c426318677212b6ac3e64fa
- Realised P&L
- $-1.93
- Volume
- $18.7k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $3.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.00at 0.500Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7?
- +$6.00at 0.250Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 21?
- +$2.35at 0.460Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$1.08at 0.650US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
- +$0.45at 0.870Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 08:42 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:41 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:40 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:40 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 06:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 08:59 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 07:59 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 07:59 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 07:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2899998666 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 07:59 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 05-19 07:58 | Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 05:07 | Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? | BUY | 0.69 | $4.00 |
| 08-19 05:05 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-19 05:04 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 06-04 08:40 | Pacers vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |