ironstorm
0xebb4ac7a0eb77e9976a30c382552bbf5d4691576
- Realised P&L
- $320.50
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $16.06
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.388 | 0.230 | $7.97 | −$5.46 |
| Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.024 | $3.31 | −$10.85 |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.405 | $2.02 | +$0.17 |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.030 | $1.50 | −$6.50 |
| Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode? · No | 0.340 | 0.250 | $1.25 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.38at 0.619Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31?
- +$51.95at 0.290Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$35.76at 0.260Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?
- +$33.16at 0.767Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?
- +$30.06at 0.380Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 11:53 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.85 |
| 09-29 11:48 | Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 09-25 07:51 | Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $5.27 |
| 09-25 07:50 | Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 09-15 17:51 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? | SELL | 0.0038333333 | $0.23 |
| 08-29 11:57 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.057 | $2.56 |
| 08-11 09:41 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.06 | $1.02 |
| 08-11 09:40 | Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? | BUY | 0.059 | $0.31 |
| 07-15 17:57 | Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 07-15 17:56 | Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 07-15 17:56 | Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 07-15 17:55 | Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.12 |
| 07-15 17:46 | Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $8.00 |
| 07-05 13:49 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $4.60 |
| 06-23 13:26 | Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | SELL | 0.103 | $1.62 |