PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Allcap

0xe9b3ddcaf6fe4d04f937f16df009284e8094cfd0

Realised P&L
$-230.18
Volume
$17.5k
Markets traded
43
Open portfolio
$341.30

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded43
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample23 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes0.1810.085$180.69$204.45
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2340.155$38.53$19.55
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3280.160$30.83$32.37
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.1430.075$28.31$25.69
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2250.200$19.64$2.46
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0920.060$10.69$5.81
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes0.1660.095$10.28$7.72
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2380.210$7.83$1.06
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? · Yes0.1940.075$7.25$11.55
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5850.565$3.86$0.14
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1060.021$3.38$14.18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? · Yes0.0350.000$0.00$22.60
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0620.000$0.00$121.79
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? · Yes0.3210.000$0.00$22.45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00$13.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 14:08Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.579999826$1.00
07-31 09:58Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.16$2.23
07-31 09:56Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0699999688$2.00
07-31 09:55Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?BUY0.08$3.00
07-31 09:53Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5599999664$2.00
07-31 09:52Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.15$3.00
07-31 09:51Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY0.0899999736$3.00
07-15 11:09Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?BUY0.089999949$1.50
07-11 23:08Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.2199998548$1.00
07-08 11:54Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.2799999515$3.00
07-05 22:10Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.2299999603$4.00
07-04 23:59Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00
07-04 23:58Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00
07-04 23:55Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.29999982$1.00
07-04 23:55Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3$6.00