Allcap
0xe9b3ddcaf6fe4d04f937f16df009284e8094cfd0
- Realised P&L
- $-230.18
- Volume
- $17.5k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $341.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$275.23at 0.152Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$179.70at 0.213Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
- +$51.26at 0.361Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?
- +$38.28at 0.332Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
- +$25.49at 0.313Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 14:08 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 09:58 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.23 |
| 07-31 09:56 | Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 09:55 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 09:53 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 09:52 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 09:51 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999736 | $3.00 |
| 07-15 11:09 | Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999949 | $1.50 |
| 07-11 23:08 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-08 11:54 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999515 | $3.00 |
| 07-05 22:10 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999603 | $4.00 |
| 07-04 23:59 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 23:58 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 23:55 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 23:55 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |