0xe98793eb114b65ab43f1aef9e51e80f6e1a7b9c5
0xe98793eb114b65ab43f1aef9e51e80f6e1a7b9c5
- Realised P&L
- $-2.58
- Volume
- $241.5k
- Markets traded
- 354
- Open portfolio
- $529.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded354
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? · No | 0.453 | 0.968 | $157.14 | +$83.65 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? · No | 0.733 | 0.983 | $144.59 | +$36.75 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.123 | $137.99 | −$47.84 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.841 | $36.06 | +$30.30 |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? · Yes | 0.424 | 0.155 | $31.90 | −$55.36 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.823 | 0.972 | $9.73 | +$1.48 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.051 | $5.84 | −$30.38 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.953 | $5.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · Yes | 0.640 | 0.018 | $0.16 | −$5.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.356Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
- +$923.08at 0.520Spread: Lakers (-7.5)
- +$651.98at 0.605UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Card)
- +$519.21at 0.607 MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
- +$430.72at 0.700Clippers vs. Lakers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.84 | $10.14 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.8488318144 | $10.25 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.84 | $15.97 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.843145917 | $25.19 |