0xe98793eb114b65ab43f1aef9e51e80f6e1a7b9c5
- Realised P&L
- $147.26
- Volume
- $240.3k
- Markets traded
- 354
- Open portfolio
- $463.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded354
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? · No | 0.453 | 0.914 | $148.46 | +$74.97 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? · No | 0.733 | 0.929 | $136.65 | +$28.81 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.081 | $89.95 | −$95.89 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.840 | $36.00 | +$30.23 |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? · Yes | 0.424 | 0.130 | $26.75 | −$60.50 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.090 | $10.21 | −$26.01 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.823 | 0.961 | $9.62 | +$1.37 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.935 | $5.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · Yes | 0.640 | 0.090 | $0.79 | −$4.83 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.356Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
- +$923.08at 0.520Spread: Lakers (-7.5)
- +$651.98at 0.605UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Card)
- +$519.21at 0.607 MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
- +$430.72at 0.700Clippers vs. Lakers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.84 | $10.14 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.8488318144 | $10.25 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.84 | $15.97 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | BUY | 0.8699998309 | $4.99 |
| 05-18 15:18 | Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? | SELL | 0.843145917 | $25.19 |