mintable
0xe9776e635caa73e9bccc8600bea06c54246b74ca
- Realised P&L
- $-400.45
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $28.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.275 | $28.31 | −$41.69 |
| Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$129.57 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$134.49 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 21? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.00 |
| Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.60 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.775 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$145.42 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.551 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? · Yes | 0.159 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.61 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$178.18at 0.440US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?
- +$132.36at 0.418US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$59.00at 0.410Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
- +$58.14at 0.500Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
- +$50.00at 0.500Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 06:42 | Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7746728583 | $145.42 |
| 10-02 06:41 | Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5513495037 | $75.00 |
| 09-14 14:27 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 09-14 14:22 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4044149634 | $43.13 |
| 09-10 18:33 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6799999965 | $70.00 |
| 09-10 18:33 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999991 | $32.00 |
| 08-21 03:02 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.4399999985 | $140.00 |
| 08-17 13:31 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.8994786909 | $247.36 |
| 06-28 02:39 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.4 | $70.00 |
| 06-04 08:38 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999887 | $50.00 |
| 06-04 08:38 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5689640559 | $58.00 |
| 05-20 07:02 | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 05-20 07:01 | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY | 0.32 | $66.00 |
| 04-22 07:12 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999998 | $123.93 |
| 04-22 07:12 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $123.93 |