olaffire
0xe898cdb0f5d53f61801538998cf9911c6a3b7116
- Realised P&L
- $-499.48
- Volume
- $53.0k
- Markets traded
- 711
- Open portfolio
- $133.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded711
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.32at 0.786Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
- +$21.75at 0.751Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$20.27at 0.330Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?
- +$17.26at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
- +$15.72at 0.944Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 12:39 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $950B by October 31? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 10-09 00:49 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $15.01 |
| 10-09 00:12 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $7.49 |
| 09-22 10:30 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.10 |
| 09-21 01:39 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 13:40 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.0601009091 | $5.95 |
| 09-20 13:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.43 | $8.28 |
| 09-17 13:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 13:09 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 09-16 11:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.75 |
| 09-15 13:54 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $8.71 |
| 09-13 14:50 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.269999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 14:50 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.954 | $9.54 |
| 08-11 06:12 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.063 | $0.63 |
| 08-11 06:06 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.10 |