rainy59
0xe85845a5bf472014325ed44482aa0cbc92f05bc6
- Realised P&L
- $-991.74
- Volume
- $530.5k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $102.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)17.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2027? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.340 | $68.00 | +$14.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.055 | $19.82 | −$31.14 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.005 | $10.83 | −$2.70 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in September? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.007 | $1.40 | −$4.51 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $1.12 | −$9.83 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in September? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.011 | $1.05 | −$3.95 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in September? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.020 | $0.16 | −$0.30 |
| Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.16 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026? · No | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.06 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.42at 0.420Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
- +$26.16at 0.237Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$23.41at 0.258Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
- +$6.61at 0.085Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
- +$1.67at 0.379Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 19:16 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in September? | BUY | 0.0295571 | $5.91 |
| 09-12 19:12 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in September? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 19:11 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $6.60 |
| 09-12 19:10 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in September? | BUY | 0.059 | $0.46 |
| 08-26 08:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.15 | $7.50 |
| 08-26 08:55 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | SELL | 0.041 | $4.10 |
| 08-26 08:54 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | SELL | 0.0501187203 | $3.79 |
| 08-21 09:43 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | BUY | 0.068 | $13.60 |
| 08-21 09:42 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | BUY | 0.067 | $2.01 |
| 08-21 09:13 | US recession by end of 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $54.00 |
| 08-21 09:06 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 08-21 09:05 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.95 |
| 08-21 08:57 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $84.07 |
| 08-14 20:13 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 08-14 20:11 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $43.46 |