rainy59
0xe85845a5bf472014325ed44482aa0cbc92f05bc6
- Realised P&L
- $-870.53
- Volume
- $524.4k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $118.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)19.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.075 | $82.58 | −$46.72 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.018 | $19.25 | +$2.45 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.007 | $16.24 | +$2.72 |
| Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.16 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026? · No | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$127.59at 0.410Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
- +$29.84at 0.230Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$24.80at 0.250Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
- +$8.60at 0.082Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
- +$7.26at 0.370Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 01:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.0241881224 | $11.85 |
| 07-25 17:10 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.004 | $5.20 |
| 07-25 17:06 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.036 | $6.84 |
| 07-25 16:59 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $6.00 |
| 07-25 16:57 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0045127949 | $1.76 |
| 07-20 01:52 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July? | SELL | 0.08 | $25.78 |
| 07-19 18:16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.20 |
| 07-19 18:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.037 | $11.10 |
| 07-19 18:11 | Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.34 |
| 07-18 14:18 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.018 | $10.80 |
| 07-13 16:53 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July? | SELL | 0.5 | $50.04 |
| 07-11 18:49 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in July? | BUY | 0.26 | $127.11 |
| 07-11 18:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.005 | $114.00 |
| 07-06 15:30 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 15:27 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.0367225625 | $11.75 |