valorun
0xe82aed8ab03592cc2acd45681dea4561e99adb8d
- Realised P&L
- $-372.00
- Volume
- $348.4k
- Markets traded
- 5,134
- Open portfolio
- $96.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,134
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$282.90at 0.679Bitcoin Up or Down on December 15?
- +$240.20at 0.800Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 30?
- +$200.64at 0.335Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5?
- +$185.63at 0.057Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21?
- +$183.58at 0.425Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 07:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 08-04 07:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3AM ET | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 08-04 07:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2AM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-03 14:29 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on August 3? | BUY | 0.883 | $4.42 |
| 07-23 11:15 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 07-23 09:17 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.695 | $6.95 |
| 07-23 09:16 | Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 07-23 09:05 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $4.00 |
| 07-23 08:31 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 07-23 08:31 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 05-17 10:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET | SELL | 0.998 | $13.96 |
| 05-17 10:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5AM ET | SELL | 0.999 | $10.89 |
| 05-15 13:44 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.999 | $39.96 |
| 05-14 19:53 | Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $1.67 |
| 05-14 18:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |