0xe7d3cf4fba94df9751f61897ebad232f3df9f638
0xe7d3cf4fba94df9751f61897ebad232f3df9f638
- Realised P&L
- $-32.07
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $68.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.595 | $48.58 | −$0.41 |
| Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? · Yes | 0.906 | 0.887 | $9.70 | −$0.21 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.770 | 0.825 | $7.46 | +$0.50 |
| Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.045 | $1.30 | −$0.70 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.024 | $1.05 | −$0.95 |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.028 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.022 | $0.23 | −$0.78 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.003 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.40at 0.365Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on January 13?
- +$10.64at 0.484Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on January 16?
- +$5.00at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or below on January 13?
- +$4.74at 0.630Counter-Strike: Brute vs HyperSpirit (BO3)
- +$2.96at 0.103Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 07:19 | Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? | BUY | 0.9059999927 | $9.91 |
| 10-10 09:21 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6 | $48.99 |
| 07-26 07:50 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7699999779 | $6.96 |
| 05-14 11:11 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.6299998929 | $4.94 |
| 03-10 15:18 | Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.0037835026 | $0.15 |
| 03-05 19:49 | Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.966999953 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 19:03 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.00 |
| 02-18 18:24 | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.9459997742 | $3.00 |
| 02-16 12:46 | Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.024765471 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 12:46 | Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.0789999325 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 12:43 | Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0909999255 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 12:41 | Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 12:36 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0129999873 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 12:34 | Artemis II booster rupture? | BUY | 0.1091247239 | $1.00 |
| 02-16 12:29 | Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |