Palmfrog
0xe6ed4c630dfa0380cf9add8a2c44fa34832007ea
- Realised P&L
- $15.2k
- Volume
- $356.3k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $23.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.3kat 0.497Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
- +$3.9kat 0.645Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$1.4kat 0.934Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$1.2kat 0.879Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$1.1kat 0.809Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 05:52 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.2255825 | $135.35 |
| 09-01 05:38 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.266904253 | $181.05 |
| 08-15 12:07 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0939999995 | $150.00 |
| 07-27 10:09 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.089 | $178.00 |
| 07-16 23:57 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.079 | $79.00 |
| 07-16 23:55 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.078975 | $78.98 |
| 07-16 23:52 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.9460694133 | $1.4k |
| 05-04 10:05 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.044 | $9.42 |
| 05-04 10:03 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.044 | $23.54 |
| 05-04 10:01 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2616278146 | $520.20 |
| 02-04 23:47 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $622.50 |
| 02-04 23:46 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.83 | $1.7k |
| 02-04 23:45 | Seahawks vs. Patriots | BUY | 0.69 | $172.50 |
| 02-04 23:42 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0296524329 | $36.44 |
| 01-30 21:36 | Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.724511625 | $579.61 |