Thanevor
0xe63389f0f1882942bfa1b211027cb0f9a77bc0fe
- Realised P&L
- $463.54
- Volume
- $201.6k
- Markets traded
- 464
- Open portfolio
- $838.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded464
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.894 | 0.955 | $210.10 | +$13.50 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.937 | 0.958 | $191.54 | +$4.11 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No | 0.821 | 0.935 | $187.23 | +$22.81 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.616 | 0.515 | $161.89 | −$31.75 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.425 | $85.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.033 | $1.63 | −$18.38 |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.025 | $1.27 | −$33.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$221.57at 0.011Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
- +$123.07at 0.776Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$85.20at 0.100Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31?
- +$83.50at 0.427Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June?
- +$77.93at 0.006Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 18:56 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4149999851 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 20:34 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.409999991 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 20:34 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 15:58 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 15:56 | France vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 07-14 15:56 | France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.6 | $10.00 |
| 07-13 20:04 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.449999955 | $5.00 |
| 07-13 03:32 | England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 07-11 22:40 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 16:20 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 23:29 | Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3499999615 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 23:29 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 19:08 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5399999966 | $45.00 |
| 07-05 17:08 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 16:58 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5199999834 | $5.00 |