kAmweijR
0xe4be3a0788961db3ece918e48bd667fb28053b28
- Realised P&L
- $-287.18
- Volume
- $16.9k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? · No | 0.767 | 0.915 | $1.2k | +$187.17 |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.966 | $965.50 | +$25.50 |
| US recession by end of 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.905 | $922.46 | −$25.48 |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? · No | 0.887 | 0.948 | $641.41 | +$41.41 |
| Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%? · No | 0.957 | 0.996 | $298.65 | +$11.63 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.969 | $193.70 | +$13.70 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.984 | 0.981 | $92.17 | −$0.33 |
| Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.187 | $37.40 | −$61.78 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? · Yes | 0.832 | 0.034 | $7.17 | −$170.96 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$176.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$368.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.75at 0.790Grokipedia released by December 31?
- +$79.00at 0.962Will Trump resign in 2025?
- +$55.71at 0.943Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$54.00at 0.880Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
- +$42.52at 0.963Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 10:04 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $947.94 |
| 05-25 14:52 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.976 | $478.24 |
| 05-25 14:50 | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | BUY | 0.8867979204 | $600.00 |
| 05-25 14:50 | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | BUY | 0.6556846972 | $500.00 |
| 01-02 20:33 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.984 | $92.50 |
| 01-02 20:32 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | SELL | 0.897121 | $89.71 |
| 01-02 10:30 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | BUY | 0.88 | $396.00 |
| 01-02 10:14 | AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | BUY | 0.8323831776 | $178.13 |
| 01-02 10:13 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.8925 | $89.25 |
| 01-02 10:10 | Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 01-02 10:07 | AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96486177 | $964.86 |
| 01-02 10:03 | Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%? | BUY | 0.9566444649 | $280.08 |
| 01-02 10:01 | Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%? | BUY | 0.4958775 | $99.18 |
| 01-02 09:53 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.98458615 | $196.92 |
| 01-02 09:52 | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $176.00 |