0xe484d3b71dde2ac09bae3bd73ea9af536cc3e2a8
- Realised P&L
- $0.32
- Volume
- $102.73
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $16.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.600 | $5.45 | +$3.45 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $2.98 | +$0.98 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.765 | $2.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? · No | 0.770 | 0.825 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.705 | $1.76 | −$0.24 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.465 | $1.42 | −$0.11 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.310 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.97at 0.270Will Trump say "Steel" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will MGM Resorts (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.10at 0.640Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 00:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:38 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:59 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:59 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:43 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:41 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 02:25 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 18:23 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 10:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.08 |
| 07-30 12:51 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6099999377 | $1.86 |
| 07-30 04:23 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6499999508 | $1.98 |
| 07-29 16:59 | Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |
| 07-28 19:29 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.5499999298 | $1.96 |