0xe484d3b71dde2ac09bae3bd73ea9af536cc3e2a8
0xe484d3b71dde2ac09bae3bd73ea9af536cc3e2a8
- Realised P&L
- $-3.20
- Volume
- $253.64
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $5.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.935 | $2.86 | +$1.33 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? · No | 0.340 | 0.380 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth 2.5% to 3.5%? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.295 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.310 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.03at 0.227Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.278Will Trump say "Steel" during Michigan remarks?
- +$2.54at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 02:58 | Procter & Gamble (PG) Q1 organic sales growth 2.5% to 3.5%? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 18:57 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 22:57 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 14:56 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2789999526 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 06:55 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7959999331 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 21:52 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:33 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:31 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 18:29 | Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:19 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:17 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 15:49 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:45 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |