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Traders

TheRealWarMonger

0xe472ce6be1fb4673d6155de37e414ead8bace7eb

Realised P&L
$-6.4k
Volume
$7.19M
Markets traded
637
Open portfolio
$22.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded637
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.9971.000$9.0k+$22.50
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.8350.840$3.0k+$16.20
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.9050.755$2.3k−$450.00
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? · No0.9831.000$2.0k+$33.00
New pandemic in 2026? · No0.9400.945$1.9k+$10.00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7180.502$1.5k−$647.49
Will Trump endorse Lula da Silva for President of Brazil? · No0.9600.979$881.10+$17.10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? · No0.9200.945$756.00+$20.00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? · No0.9660.961$384.20−$2.20
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.8970.905$355.82+$2.93
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · No0.8430.910$109.21+$7.98
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.7410.295$39.82−$60.18
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31? · No0.9400.926$37.05−$0.54
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? · No0.8100.860$16.74+$0.97
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? · No0.5200.745$7.45+$2.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-30 12:56Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?BUY0.999$8.3k
09-30 04:03Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?BUY0.9969999996$400.00
09-29 15:15Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.997$2.9k
09-28 17:14US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?SELL0.954919996$2.4k
09-28 05:31Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?BUY0.997$829.92
09-27 08:24Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?SELL0.92$368.00
09-10 07:48Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.997$17.9k
09-06 16:44Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.995$298.50
09-04 06:20Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.27$5.4k
08-30 20:04Israel closes its airspace by August 31?BUY0.993$198.60
08-30 20:02Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.998$1.8k
08-29 09:17Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL0.993$9.57
08-29 09:16Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.99$891.99
08-29 09:15Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL0.993$893.70
08-28 14:31Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?BUY0.52$104.00