PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

TheRealWarMonger

0xe472ce6be1fb4673d6155de37e414ead8bace7eb

Realised P&L
$-6.6k
Volume
$6.59M
Markets traded
594
Open portfolio
$71.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded594
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.8320.585$21.4k$9.1k
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.6300.675$14.5k+$969.15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.4770.405$14.0k$2.5k
Iran leadership change by August 31? · No0.9600.977$5.7k+$97.12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No0.9290.865$5.0k$369.00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No0.9580.959$2.4k+$1.26
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.7620.655$2.4k$383.94
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · No0.9400.979$2.3k+$89.63
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · No0.8300.895$894.99+$65.00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? · No0.9820.983$589.80+$0.60
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.8520.875$544.33+$14.44
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? · No0.9920.995$497.50+$1.50
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? · No0.6300.445$464.47$193.09
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9200.937$187.40+$3.40
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.7410.495$66.82$33.18

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 21:50Iran leadership change by July 31?BUY0.998$1.9k
07-31 18:53Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?BUY0.997999998$400.00
07-31 18:52Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?BUY0.9849999862$50.00
07-29 22:34Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.45$450.00
07-29 18:18Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.8099999737$17.89
07-29 18:02Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.329999997$70.00
07-29 18:00Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?BUY0.9978643731$700.00
07-29 05:56Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.997$2.0k
07-28 20:37Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4$80.00
07-28 17:49Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.989$1.5k
07-28 17:49No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.9889780769$514.27
07-28 06:27Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.995$4.2k
07-28 06:27Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.998$4.0k
07-27 14:08Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?BUY0.216$172.80
07-26 19:21Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.8$345.35