TheRealWarMonger
0xe472ce6be1fb4673d6155de37e414ead8bace7eb
- Realised P&L
- $-6.4k
- Volume
- $7.19M
- Markets traded
- 637
- Open portfolio
- $22.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded637
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.1kat 0.001Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$11.6kat 0.708US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$11.5kat 0.833Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
- +$9.4kat 0.001Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$8.6kat 0.645Fed rate hike in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 12:56 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.3k |
| 09-30 04:03 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999996 | $400.00 |
| 09-29 15:15 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.9k |
| 09-28 17:14 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.954919996 | $2.4k |
| 09-28 05:31 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $829.92 |
| 09-27 08:24 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $368.00 |
| 09-10 07:48 | Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $17.9k |
| 09-06 16:44 | Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.995 | $298.50 |
| 09-04 06:20 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $5.4k |
| 08-30 20:04 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $198.60 |
| 08-30 20:02 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.8k |
| 08-29 09:17 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.993 | $9.57 |
| 08-29 09:16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $891.99 |
| 08-29 09:15 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.993 | $893.70 |
| 08-28 14:31 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.52 | $104.00 |