0xe38ae9d4647e03e864f11f20018b24f879f6f2c3
- Realised P&L
- $461.87
- Volume
- $11.9k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $33.72
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.082 | $7.41 | −$2.59 |
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.077 | $6.42 | −$3.58 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.085 | $4.94 | −$13.06 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.095 | $4.75 | −$4.25 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.086 | $4.38 | −$10.62 |
| Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.040 | $3.27 | −$5.73 |
| Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.025 | $2.21 | −$5.79 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.004 | $0.35 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$197.99at 0.010Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$173.76at 0.070Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
- +$120.50at 0.082US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
- +$119.78at 0.080Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
- +$116.73at 0.094Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 04:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | BUY | 0.0147731683 | $1.16 |
| 07-26 05:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | BUY | 0.0229999809 | $1.16 |
| 07-25 10:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.0210000003 | $2.00 |
| 07-24 14:36 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.42 |
| 07-24 12:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | BUY | 0.0599999724 | $2.00 |
| 07-24 12:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | BUY | 0.0599999865 | $4.00 |
| 07-24 12:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23? | BUY | 0.01426961 | $2.00 |
| 07-24 12:07 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $12.00 |
| 07-19 12:13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4089999938 | $14.65 |
| 07-19 11:41 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4089999984 | $81.99 |
| 07-12 01:10 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2799999783 | $7.23 |
| 07-12 01:10 | Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.0920779856 | $7.53 |
| 07-11 20:38 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.2174999922 | $17.20 |
| 07-11 20:37 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $18.06 |
| 07-10 19:42 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.1349999889 | $9.53 |