PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xe31b69A0d64C2483654CaE73F15C98836b6F5f28-1769024771862

0xe31b69a0d64c2483654cae73f15c98836b6f5f28

Realised P&L
$-2.6k
Volume
$236.7k
Markets traded
159
Open portfolio
$203.36

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded159
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3780.510$135.05+$35.05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.3530.145$41.02−$58.98
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.2050.035$17.30−$82.70
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? · Yes0.0700.065$9.21−$0.79
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes0.0900.007$0.78−$9.22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? · Yes0.0240.000$0.00−$60.00
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$10.00
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? · Yes0.0640.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00−$10.00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1620.000$0.00−$30.00
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00−$10.00
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? · Yes0.2800.000$0.00−$30.00
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00−$10.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$50.00
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? · Yes0.0650.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-01 18:15Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?SELL0.048$2.26
08-22 04:18Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?BUY0.1499999997$400.00
08-22 04:17Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?BUY0.0213845515$20.00
07-14 20:41Will France win on 2026-07-14?SELL0.0125$1.13
07-14 20:40Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.9104308384$110.00
07-14 19:21Will France win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.2049999871$10.00
07-14 19:21Will France win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.242499984$10.00
07-14 19:15Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?BUY0.2974999974$50.00
07-13 18:20Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.0289999986$20.00
07-13 18:20Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.057208951$30.00
07-09 21:02Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.117499991$10.00
07-01 22:59Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
07-01 22:58Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0341698738$10.00
07-01 22:56Israel closes its airspace by July 31?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
07-01 22:56Israel closes its airspace by July 7?BUY0.0220000001$5.00