0xe2bdd38c1077a31d56056ea24b46f482e394eab2
0xe2bdd38c1077a31d56056ea24b46f482e394eab2
- Realised P&L
- $-611.04
- Volume
- $28.6k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $83.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.384 | $38.35 | +$8.35 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 24? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.220 | $22.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.115 | $11.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.095 | $11.50 | −$32.14 |
| Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.051 | $0.25 | +$0.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.001 | $0.10 | −$25.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.99at 0.400Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?
- +$91.59at 0.180Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?
- +$83.95at 0.160Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 9?
- +$79.95at 0.201Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 5?
- +$76.67at 0.318Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 06:43 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 09-12 11:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 09-11 02:09 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.0199004975 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 04:00 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.35 | $2.80 |
| 09-04 03:25 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $7.17 |
| 09-01 06:37 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 2? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 08-31 13:39 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $14.47 |
| 08-27 04:28 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27? | BUY | 0.06 | $2.28 |
| 08-27 01:19 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27? | BUY | 0.1789709172 | $8.00 |
| 08-27 01:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 03:34 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21? | SELL | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 08-21 03:33 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.17 | $0.33 |
| 08-21 03:31 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 03:31 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.1674876565 | $4.00 |
| 08-21 03:29 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.12 |