DistilledAppleJuice
0xe238dc271520765ae22b528a36bb32e96defd3fc
- Realised P&L
- $-388.91
- Volume
- $17.8k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $603.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.976 | $438.98 | +$19.48 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.205 | $94.90 | +$35.98 |
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.055 | $60.88 | −$23.74 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.033 | $9.01 | −$3.52 |
| Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.20 |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.454 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.30 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.779 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$722.07 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.00 |
| Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$160.76at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
- +$76.00at 0.240Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$22.00at 0.140US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$15.97at 0.958Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
- +$15.00at 0.850Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 01:26 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | SELL | 0.35 | $70.00 |
| 07-17 01:25 | Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $27.45 |
| 07-13 17:57 | Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 06-21 15:06 | Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $56.01 |
| 05-31 11:23 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $48.22 |
| 05-29 17:14 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $228.00 |
| 05-29 17:12 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $396.00 |
| 05-29 16:50 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $152.00 |
| 05-03 07:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |
| 05-03 05:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 05-03 05:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.491124013 | $95.17 |
| 05-03 05:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.4728847864 | $25.00 |
| 05-03 05:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.461231073 | $25.00 |
| 05-03 05:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 04-11 12:24 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12? | BUY | 0.063 | $1.39 |