lazyman11
0xe16f53dd9ea43631b461602d4120ee169f2a08b5
- Realised P&L
- $13.60
- Volume
- $98.0k
- Markets traded
- 133
- Open portfolio
- $61.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded133
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.998 | $14.96 | +$0.04 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.996 | $14.93 | +$0.01 |
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.575 | $13.22 | +$2.88 |
| Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.953 | 0.970 | $12.61 | +$0.22 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.927 | 0.972 | $5.83 | +$0.27 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? · No | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.65 |
| Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? · No | 0.966 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? · 100k | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.47at 0.291Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$8.24at 0.665Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$8.05at 0.980Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$6.51at 0.617Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.46at 0.627Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 19:03 | Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.953 | $12.39 |
| 09-22 19:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.93 |
| 09-22 19:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.93 |
| 09-22 19:00 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.45 | $10.35 |
| 08-20 16:53 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.97 |
| 08-20 16:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $10.20 |
| 08-20 16:52 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in August? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.87 |
| 08-20 16:50 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $54.56 |
| 07-15 15:21 | Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.995 | $37.81 |
| 07-15 15:20 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $54.56 |
| 07-15 15:14 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.95 |
| 06-02 15:11 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.927 | $5.56 |
| 06-02 15:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $10.50 |
| 06-02 15:10 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $54.84 |
| 06-02 15:10 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? | BUY | 0.988 | $24.70 |