0xe11Cea12dB31E57EF0beedDd911D321de44Df800-1774432784699
0xe11cea12db31e57ef0beeddd911d321de44df800
- Realised P&L
- $-49.70
- Volume
- $21.4k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $743.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · No | 0.880 | 0.951 | $162.02 | +$12.02 |
| Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.545 | $136.24 | −$1.25 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.955 | $104.94 | +$4.95 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.875 | $104.17 | +$4.17 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.235 | $90.38 | −$9.62 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.370 | 0.265 | $85.12 | −$33.72 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.405 | $60.45 | −$39.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$144.61at 0.723Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$51.00at 0.660Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$32.82at 0.174Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$23.83at 0.800Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$19.55at 0.836Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 04:52 | Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23? | BUY | 0.55 | $137.49 |
| 09-20 23:58 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.984 | $544.60 |
| 09-18 22:03 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8299999993 | $200.00 |
| 08-29 09:34 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.0361170586 | $61.74 |
| 08-22 05:15 | Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.8799999995 | $150.00 |
| 08-21 08:36 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.0349010805 | $40.12 |
| 08-17 00:04 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.839999999 | $100.00 |
| 08-17 00:03 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2599999985 | $100.00 |
| 08-17 00:00 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $100.00 |
| 07-28 10:14 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $100.00 |
| 07-07 00:18 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.185 | $537.18 |
| 07-06 23:26 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.184 | $513.33 |
| 06-21 05:40 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.3699999983 | $118.84 |
| 06-21 05:39 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SELL | 0.98 | $116.15 |
| 06-11 22:11 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1699999999 | $967.90 |