PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

lug

0xe0dbdb7f005f233f4510e4ef7e53a2f76a8df44e

Realised P&L
$84.7k
Volume
$23.88M
Markets traded
4,355
Open portfolio
$120.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded4,355
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration9.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7430.835$14.0k+$1.5k
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.8040.705$10.6k−$1.5k
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.4700.625$5.3k+$1.3k
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? · No0.9080.939$4.7k+$154.31
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5230.575$4.6k+$411.38
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No0.8400.835$4.2k−$25.00
Will Rishi Sharma win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? · No0.7780.910$3.7k+$541.66
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · Yes0.1070.120$3.6k+$372.41
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No0.5800.715$3.6k+$675.00
No one announced as next James Bond? · No0.7860.772$3.5k−$65.78
Spread: Vikings (-1.5) · Vikings0.4800.485$3.4k+$35.00
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No0.8800.870$3.3k−$38.43
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · No0.5400.535$3.2k−$30.00
Rams vs. Broncos · Broncos0.4500.455$3.2k+$35.00
Spread: Kentucky (-20.5) · Kentucky0.5200.515$3.1k−$30.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-25 14:58Spread: Kentucky (-20.5)BUY0.52$1.6k
09-25 14:56Spread: Vikings (-1.5)BUY0.48$3.4k
09-25 14:50Jets vs. LionsBUY0.28$3.1k
09-24 05:42Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?SELL0.27$36.54
09-24 05:42Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?SELL0.26$128.53
09-23 13:55Game Handicap: SC (-1.5) vs Pyramid IV Esports (+1.5)BUY0.72$359.99
09-22 18:06Game Handicap: AP (-1.5) vs Pyramid IV Esports (+1.5)BUY0.5697297297$105.40
09-22 18:05Game Handicap: AP (-1.5) vs Pyramid IV Esports (+1.5)BUY0.55$2.75
09-20 15:55Panthers vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5BUY0.49$2.9k
09-20 15:54Dolphins vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5BUY0.47$2.8k
09-20 15:48Spread: Eagles (-6.5)BUY0.53$2.9k
09-20 15:46Jaguars vs. BroncosBUY0.43$3.0k
09-20 15:45Packers vs. JetsBUY0.61$3.0k
09-20 15:41Panthers vs. FalconsBUY0.57$2.8k
09-20 14:27Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)BUY0.49$268.03