amehn
0xdfe260f62f5ac55f60cd9eda32202877e797cfc5
- Realised P&L
- $8.73
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $115.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.265 | $40.72 | +$15.04 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.825 | $16.84 | +$6.84 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.765 | $12.97 | +$2.97 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.865 | $11.23 | +$1.23 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.730 | 0.735 | $10.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.445 | $8.56 | −$1.44 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.405 | $7.64 | −$2.36 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.024 | $3.93 | −$6.07 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.045 | $3.06 | −$7.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.84at 0.370Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?
- +$6.19at 0.620Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
- +$5.05at 0.667Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?
- +$4.34at 0.530Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
- +$4.20at 0.706Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 08:15 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $15.68 |
| 09-07 03:59 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.997 | $16.34 |
| 08-27 23:45 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 20:35 | Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 07-20 14:14 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 22:09 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 22:08 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0611353657 | $10.00 |
| 06-30 01:21 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.7599999847 | $9.94 |
| 06-30 01:21 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.7199999856 | $10.00 |
| 06-23 04:36 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |
| 06-22 00:05 | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 01:26 | Will France win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.8799999965 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 22:46 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 22:42 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 16:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | SELL | 0.74 | $5.60 |