JuliusNakamoto
0xdf5e4fa5be349b674874b42cfb538ac6e2534168
- Realised P&L
- $23.6k
- Volume
- $3.01M
- Markets traded
- 537
- Open portfolio
- $7.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded537
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.7kat 0.648Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?
- +$7.6kat 0.157Ethereum flipped in 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.033Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$3.2kat 0.530Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?
- +$2.8kat 0.285Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 18:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0370793564 | $19.61 |
| 09-20 17:41 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.218852412 | $76.26 |
| 09-18 10:05 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.81 | $567.00 |
| 09-11 07:12 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.79 | $474.72 |
| 07-03 06:31 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.005 | $20.00 |
| 06-28 15:17 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? | BUY | 0.0312840075 | $16.02 |
| 06-28 13:02 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $33.60 |
| 06-28 13:00 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? | BUY | 0.0266667509 | $15.82 |
| 05-18 22:23 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $37.16 |
| 05-14 14:48 | Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? | BUY | 0.15 | $135.29 |
| 05-12 16:28 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $409.60 |
| 05-07 18:25 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.906 | $1.8k |
| 04-28 17:12 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.905 | $905.00 |
| 04-20 14:39 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | BUY | 0.8669219149 | $1.5k |
| 04-16 08:18 | Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? | BUY | 0.2818977879 | $184.01 |